The UK’s zero emission vehicle mandate was exceeded in its first year of operation, according to newly published government data, with both car and van markets surpassing regulatory requirements. The Department for Transport’s 2024 Vehicle Emissions Trading Schemes compliance report confirms that manufacturers met and exceeded targets, despite repeated claims from industry groups that the mandate would not be achievable.

The findings provide the first official account of how the scheme has performed in practice. They also offer insight into how regulatory flexibilities shaped compliance outcomes across the market.

The headline target for zero emission car sales in 2024 was set at 22 percent. However, the report shows that the effective compliance threshold was lower due to the design of the scheme, which allows manufacturers to convert improvements in internal combustion engine efficiency into equivalent zero emission vehicle credits.

Car manufacturers made extensive use of this mechanism. Improvements in CO2 performance generated credits equivalent to 4.7 percent of additional zero emission vehicle registrations. Combined with a further 1.2 percent of borrowing against future targets, this reduced the effective compliance requirement to 17.3 percent.

Official data shows that the market met this adjusted threshold. The figures closely align with independent estimates published by transport research organisation New AutoMotive, which had previously calculated a required level of 17.9 percent.

The Department for Transport’s report also confirms that both the car and van markets over-complied with the mandate. In the van segment, manufacturers met a 10 percent headline target through a combination of 6.8 percent zero emission sales and 5.3 percent derived from CO2 conversion.

As a result of over-compliance, manufacturers have accumulated a surplus of allowances. These credits can be carried forward and used to meet requirements in future years, providing flexibility as targets become more stringent over time.

The UK’s ZEV mandate forms part of a wider policy framework aimed at phasing out the sale of new petrol and diesel vehicles while supporting the transition to electric mobility. The scheme is designed to provide certainty for manufacturers while allowing a degree of flexibility in how targets are achieved.

Ben Nelmes, CEO of New AutoMotive, said:

“There has been a consistent drumbeat of claims from automotive industry representatives that the ZEV mandate targets were unattainable. Today’s DfT report proves that those claims were false. Not only did manufacturers meet the targets, they over-complied.

“At New AutoMotive, our modeling estimated the ‘real’ required ZEV sales level was being easily achieved by carmakers. I am delighted that the Department for Transport’s report validates our methodology and shows that the mandate is working exactly as intended, driving down emissions while providing manufacturers with the flexibility they need to transition.”

The alignment between independent modelling and official data is likely to influence ongoing debate around the pace and structure of the UK’s vehicle decarbonisation policies. Industry stakeholders have previously called for adjustments to the mandate, citing concerns around consumer demand and infrastructure readiness.

Other voices within the sector point to continued growth in electric vehicle uptake. The data indicates that demand has supported compliance with the mandate, alongside the regulatory flexibilities built into the system.

Fiona Howarth, Founder and Director at Octopus Electric Vehicles, said:

“Drivers are already choosing electric in growing numbers because the technology and economics make sense. The ZEV mandate provides the certainty that brings more choice and better value to drivers.

“Weakening this policy now would be the wrong approach. We should be doubling down on ways to power our cars and homes with energy produced here in the UK, rather than relying on imported fossil fuels. The focus now should be on building confidence and accelerating the transition, not slowing it down.”

Electric Vehicles UK also pointed to continued momentum in the market, with adoption levels increasing year on year.

Tanya Sinclair, CEO of Electric Vehicles UK, said:

“The UK’s EV transition is already well underway. Electric vehicles accounted for almost a quarter of new car sales last year and more than two million drivers are already enjoying the benefits of going electric.

“If some manufacturers now want to weaken the targets designed to bring these vehicles to market, they are only hurting themselves. Drivers are increasingly choosing electric because the technology, performance and running costs are better.

“Asking the government to slow the rollout of EVs goes against what drivers want and risks reducing choice just as demand is growing. Weakening the ZEV mandate will not stop the transition. It will only leave the companies calling for it further behind.”

Consumer confidence remains a key factor in the pace of adoption. While the mandate sets supply-side requirements, uptake is influenced by cost, infrastructure, and clarity around policy.

Ginny Buckley, chief executive of Electrifying.com, said:

“For most drivers the question is simple: does an electric car fit my life and can I afford it?

“Mixed messages around policies like the ZEV mandate and the threat of new taxes like pay per mile are sowing confusion among car buyers at exactly the moment confidence needs building.

“Government and industry must start working together and speak with one voice to create a clear, credible path that gives motorists the confidence to choose an EV for their next car.”

The transition to electric mobility is also linked to broader industrial and economic considerations. Companies operating in vehicle development and electrification are seeing shifts in demand as global markets move away from internal combustion technologies.

Rhodri Darch, Co-CEO of Everrati, said:

“The global momentum behind the shift to electric mobility continues to grow. What we are seeing is a structural transition in how vehicles and propulsion systems are developed.

“The UK already has world-leading expertise in low-volume engineering and specialist electrification, and at Everrati, we are seeing strong demand from international clients looking to access those capabilities.”

The DfT report provides a detailed snapshot of the first year of the ZEV mandate and its practical operation. It shows how regulatory flexibility has enabled compliance while maintaining pressure on manufacturers to increase zero emission vehicle sales.

With future targets set to rise, the availability of banked allowances may play a role in smoothing the transition. At the same time, the data indicates that current market conditions have supported progress towards decarbonisation in the transport sector.