As world leaders prepare to gather in Brazil for COP30, a new major study from Siemens reveals how geopolitics is reshaping infrastructure strategy. National energy security has overtaken global climate cooperation as the primary driver of the energy transition. The Siemens Infrastructure Transition Monitor 2025 reveals how senior leaders believe a resilient energy supply needs to be the top government priority among infrastructure transition goals – up from third place in 2023. Meanwhile, national energy independence and the proactive management of climate risks have seen the most significant growth in priority.
The biennial study of 1,400 global executives explored the state of the infrastructure transition across energy, industry, and buildings. Research showed that national energy independence is becoming a higher priority than the phase-out of fossil fuels. Climate confidence is also on the decline, with only 37% of executives expecting to meet 2030 decarbonization targets, which was 44% in 2023. Siemens has therefore urged policymakers to embed energy resilience, grid investment, and digital technologies such as Artificial Intelligence into climate strategies.
Rising global instability has intensified market and supply chain volatility. In order to mitigate the use of energy as a geopolitical tool, governments have begun to prioritize security and preparedness alongside climate mitigation methods.
The report has highlighted a shift away from a multilateral vision of clean energy to one increasingly centered on sovereign resilience and regional production. With mounting pressure on public and private energy systems amid overlapping climate, geopolitical, and market tensions, the survey now identifies energy resilience as a key enabler of the green transition.
“The infrastructure transition is entering a new phase whereby national goals of energy security are overtaking global collaboration on decarbonization. As systems face mounting climate and energy disruptions, resilience is no longer optional – AI, technology, and digitalization are now critical to this shift. They can empower organizations and governments to manage the complexities of renewable-based systems, ensure reliability, and accelerate the clean energy transition smarter and more sustainably,” said Matthias Rebellius, Managing Board Member of Siemens AG and CEO of Smart Infrastructure.
Over three in five respondents said that any future energy systems would have to rely more on local and regional production than global trade, with key enablers including renewable integration, storage readiness, and more advanced grid systems. Over half said that resilience and energy independence are reaching a point of maturity or advancement in their home countries, signaling a shift in infrastructure priorities as already being on the way.
Further, Siemens has identified a decline in confidence over meeting climate targets. More than half of the executives surveyed said they expected an increase in fossil fuel investment over the next two years, and just 37% of businesses now expect they can meet their 2030 decarbonization targets.
The report is a wake-up call before COP30 kicks off. With confidence in climate goals on the decline, the report goes on to highlight the failure ot embed resilience into energy planning. This risks both economic and environmental fallout. At a time when governments are recalibrating their net-zero strategies amidst concerns over welfare and growth, Siemens underpins that through grid investment and digital innovation, progress towards climate commitments, as well as energy resiliency, can be accelerated.
The report also holds that AI will accelerate the transition. As national energy strategies evolve, digital technologies remain at the heart of the clean energy transition for industries. Respondents say that AI will help make critical infrastructure more resilient, and the majority report that their industries are using AI to aid in their own decarbonization efforts.
Put together, the report is indicative of a broader shift in national priorities concerning the green transition. Now more than ever, green energy is being viewed as holding the potential for complete energy sovereignty for countries that have historically been dependent on energy-exporting states.
