Fastmarkets’ Stuart Evans discusses carbon markets, CBAM impacts, and how climate policy is reshaping global commodity supply chains.
Fastmarkets is a global commodities intelligence provider focused on data, analytics, and pricing across interconnected supply chains. In this interview, Stuart Evans explains how climate policies and emerging carbon markets are transforming procurement strategies and competitiveness.
He also outlines the growing financial implications of CBAM, the aviation sector’s credit shortage, and how companies are adapting their operations in response to shifting regulatory and market pressures.
Q: Please introduce yourself to our readers and tell us a bit about your role and your organisation.
I’m the Chief Analytics Officer at Fastmarkets, where part of my role is to oversee the development of our carbon and green product offerings, including Carbon Credits and Removals, and CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism). We work across the physical commodity supply chains being reshaped by climate policy. This is core business for us, as these markets are shifting supply chains to create commercial opportunities.
I started my career as a climate policy expert and formerly advised Australia’s Minister for Climate Change, but came into climate work somewhat accidentally. Early in my career, I knew public policy was where I wanted to focus, and climate was the pressing issue in Australia (where I’m from originally) at the time. Once I began, I found myself drawn in by the complexity of the challenge, the urgent need for action and the broad economic implications.
Early in my career, I knew public policy was where I wanted to focus, and climate was the pressing issue in Australia (where I’m from originally) at the time.
Q: How will the EU’s carbon import tax, launching in January, reshape supply chain and procurement strategies for key industries?
CBAM will add significant costs across the industries it covers, but the impact will vary considerably depending on production methods and carbon intensity. This means exporters to the EU must consider whether to decarbonise their operations, while importers need to consider switching to more carbon efficient suppliers that will face lower CBAM costs.
When it comes to procurement decisions, CBAM makes carbon intensity an important determinant of overall costs. Companies sourcing from cleaner suppliers will gain cost advantages, but most high emissions imports come from just five countries – Russia, India, Turkey, China, and Ukraine. They account for over 50% of CBAM exposure. This concentration means companies must diversify their supplier base to manage both carbon costs and geopolitical risks.
The impact extends beyond direct importers to any company using steel, aluminium, cement, or fertilisers, including automotive, construction, and machinery manufacturers. With policy potentially expanding to chemicals, glass, and other sectors, companies need flexible supply chain strategies. This means mapping exposure to high emissions sources, auditing supplier emissions, and engaging early with both current and alternative suppliers to secure access to compliant materials as regulations evolve.
Companies sourcing from cleaner suppliers will gain cost advantages, but most high emissions imports come from just five countries – Russia, India, Turkey, China, and Ukraine.
Q: How significant is CBAM’s projected EUR9-22 billion cost impact, and what adjustments are companies already making in response?
CBAM’s projected cost impact is significant, and major restructuring of global trade and strategic adjustments are taking place.
Exporters to the EU are prioritising low carbon production methods in order to stay competitive. Low emissions steelmakers in the Middle East and North Africa (such as UAE’s Emirates Steel) are positioning themselves as more cost competitive suppliers to Europe. Leading Asian firms such as South Korea’s Hyundai Steel and POSCO are investing in electric furnaces and developing green steel supply agreements. We’re also seeing a lot of opportunity for metals produced in the Middle East, which has lower emissions intensity alongside a comparative advantage in other production costs.
CBAM’s projected cost impact is significant, and major restructuring of global trade and strategic adjustments are taking place.
Q: What are the short and medium-term impacts businesses should expect from the current carbon credit shortage in the aviation sector?
The aviation sector should expect significant price volatility and compliance cost pressures from the carbon credit shortage under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
Airlines need more than 150 million tonnes of credits for Phase 1 (2024-2026), but only 15.9 million credits are currently eligible. Even in the best case scenario for supply, we could still see the market fall short. This tightness is driving up prices from around $22 per tonne in October 2025 to over $30 by 2027.
The timing of credit purchases will matter significantly. Airlines that purchase gradually, starting in 2024, could see costs of 1-4% of annual profits, rising to 2-10% by 2026. But airlines that wait until the compliance deadline could face costs of 6-25% of their annual profits. By delaying, airlines expose themselves to rising prices and concentrated financial impact. There should be a clear incentive for airlines to secure high quality credits early and explore alternatives like Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and emissions reductions, alongside carbon offsetting.
The aviation sector should expect significant price volatility and compliance cost pressures from the carbon credit shortage under the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation (CORSIA).
Q: How is carbon intensity becoming a key driver of competitiveness in global commodity markets?
Carbon and climate policies are now affecting all commodity markets, and a company’s level of carbon emissions has become central to competitiveness. Companies with lower emissions profiles can access premium markets and are better positioned for future policy developments. They pay less in regulatory charges and can more easily sell into markets where carbon carries a cost.
Those who fail to manage their carbon intensity risk losing market share and facing growing costs as climate policies tighten across the globe.
Those who fail to manage their carbon intensity risk losing market share and facing growing costs as climate policies tighten across the globe.
Q: What exciting plans and goals do you have for the next few years?
I’ve been at Fastmarkets for almost a year now. Much of that time has been spent building a team of excellent people, and laying the foundations for a compelling range of analytical products that help clients understand how carbon markets and green products are reshaping commodity markets and how they should be adapting their strategies.
We launched our initial products, including carbon credits and removals intelligence and CBAM intelligence, and there’s more to come in November. There is enormous opportunity and demand in this space, and it’s moving quickly. We’re developing new modelling capabilities to understand demand drivers from the ground up, tracking which companies are adopting climate targets and what this means for demand for carbon credits, removals, and green products. We are on track to becoming the definitive source for understanding how climate action is transforming physical commodity markets.
We’re also working to improve analytics across Fastmarkets, entering a number of new markets and enhancing the way in which our clients can interact with our forecasts and intelligence. It’s an exciting time to be working in this space!
We’re developing new modelling capabilities to understand demand drivers from the ground up, tracking which companies are adopting climate targets and what this means for demand for carbon credits, removals, and green products.
